The accuracy of simulation-based forecasting in chaotic systems is heavily dependent on high-quality estimates of the system state at the beginning of the forecast. Data assimilation methods are used to infer these initial conditions by systematically combining noisy, incomplete observations and numerical models of system dynamics to produce highly effective estimation schemes. We introduce a self-supervised framework, which we call \textit{amortized assimilation}, for learning to assimilate in dynamical systems. Amortized assimilation combines deep learning-based denoising with differentiable simulation, using independent neural networks to assimilate specific observation types while connecting the gradient flow between these sub-tasks with differentiable simulation and shared recurrent memory. This hybrid architecture admits a self-supervised training objective which is minimized by an unbiased estimator of the true system state even in the presence of only noisy training data. Numerical experiments across several chaotic benchmark systems highlight the improved effectiveness of our approach compared to widely-used data assimilation methods.

Chaotic systems are intrinsically sensitive to small errors, challenging efforts to construct predictive data-driven models of real-world dynamical systems such as fluid flows or neuronal activity. Prior efforts comprise either specialized models trained separately on individual time series, or foundation models trained on vast time series databases with little underlying dynamical structure. Motivated by dynamical systems theory, we present Panda, Patched Attention for Nonlinear DynAmics. We train Panda on a novel synthetic, extensible dataset of $2 \times 10^4$ chaotic dynamical systems that we discover using an evolutionary algorithm. Trained purely on simulated data, Panda exhibits emergent properties: zero-shot forecasting of unseen real world chaotic systems, and nonlinear resonance patterns in cross-channel attention heads. Despite having been trained only on low-dimensional ordinary differential equations, Panda spontaneously develops the ability to predict partial differential equations without retraining. We demonstrate a neural scaling law for differential equations, underscoring the potential of pretrained models for probing abstract mathematical domains like nonlinear dynamics.

Time-series forecasting is a challenging problem that traditionally requires specialized models custom-trained for the specific task at hand. Recently, inspired by the success of large language models, foundation models pre-trained on vast amounts of time-series data from diverse domains have emerged as a promising candidate for general-purpose time-series forecasting. The defining characteristic of these foundation models is their ability to perform zero-shot learning, that is, forecasting a new system from limited context data without explicit re-training or fine-tuning. Here, we evaluate whether the zero-shot learning paradigm extends to the challenging task of forecasting chaotic systems. Across 135 distinct chaotic dynamical systems and $10^8$ timepoints, we find that foundation models produce competitive forecasts compared to custom-trained models (including NBEATS, TiDE, etc.), particularly when training data is limited. Interestingly, even after point forecasts fail, large foundation models are able to preserve the geometric and statistical properties of the chaotic attractors. We attribute this success to foundation models' ability to perform in-context learning and identify context parroting as a simple mechanism used by these models to capture the long-term behavior of chaotic dynamical systems. Our results highlight the potential of foundation models as a tool for probing nonlinear and complex systems.

The accuracy of simulation-based forecasting in chaotic systems is heavily dependent on high-quality estimates of the system state at the beginning of the forecast. Data assimilation methods are used to infer these initial conditions by systematically combining noisy, incomplete observations and numerical models of system dynamics to produce highly effective estimation schemes. We introduce a self-supervised framework, which we call \textit{amortized assimilation}, for learning to assimilate in dynamical systems. Amortized assimilation combines deep learning-based denoising with differentiable simulation, using independent neural networks to assimilate specific observation types while connecting the gradient flow between these sub-tasks with differentiable simulation and shared recurrent memory. This hybrid architecture admits a self-supervised training objective which is minimized by an unbiased estimator of the true system state even in the presence of only noisy training data.

Predicting the long-term behavior of chaotic systems remains a formidable challenge due to their extreme sensitivity to initial conditions and the inherent limitations of traditional data-driven modeling approaches. This paper introduces a novel framework that addresses these challenges by leveraging the recently proposed multi-step penalty (MP) optimization technique. Our approach extends the applicability of MP optimization to a wide range of deep learning architectures, including Fourier Neural Operators and UNETs. By introducing penalized local discontinuities in the forecast trajectory, we effectively handle the non-convexity of loss landscapes commonly encountered in training neural networks for chaotic systems. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through its application to two challenging use-cases: the prediction of flow velocity evolution in two-dimensional turbulence and ocean dynamics using reanalysis data. Our results highlight the potential of this approach for accurate and stable long-term prediction of chaotic dynamics, paving the way for new advancements in data-driven modeling of complex natural phenomena.

The research topic is: data-driven Bayesian state estimation with compressed measurement (BSCM) of model-free process, say for a (causal) tracking application. The dimension of the temporal measurement vector is lower than the dimension of the temporal state vector to be estimated. Hence the state estimation problem is an underdetermined inverse problem. The state-space-model (SSM) of the underlying dynamical process is assumed to be unknown and hence, we use the terminology 'model-free process'. In absence of the SSM, we can not employ traditional model-driven methods like Kalman Filter (KF) and Particle Filter (PF) and instead require data-driven methods. We first experimentally show that two existing unsupervised learning-based data-driven methods fail to address the BSCM problem for model-free process; they are data-driven nonlinear state estimation (DANSE) method and deep Markov model (DMM) method. The unsupervised learning uses unlabelled data comprised of only noisy measurements. While DANSE provides a good predictive performance to model the temporal measurement data as time-series, its unsupervised learning lacks a regularization for state estimation. We then investigate use of a semi-supervised learning approach, and develop a semi-supervised learning-based DANSE method, referred to as SemiDANSE. In the semi-supervised learning, we use a limited amount of labelled data along-with a large amount of unlabelled data, and that helps to bring the desired regularization for BSCM problem in the absence of SSM. The labelled data means pairwise measurement-and-state data. Using three chaotic dynamical systems (or processes) with nonlinear SSMs as benchmark, we show that the data-driven SemiDANSE provides competitive performance for BSCM against three SSM-informed methods - a hybrid method called KalmanNet, and two traditional model-driven methods called extended KF and unscented KF.

Many of the following statistical tests are rarely discussed in textbooks or in college classes, much less in data camps. Yet they help answer a lot of different and interesting questions. I used most of them without even computing the underlying distribution under the null hypothesis, but instead, using simulations to check whether my assumptions were plausible or not. In short, my approach to statistical testing is model-free, data-driven. Some are easy to implement even in Excel.